package messagepool import "math" func noWinnersProb() []float64 { poissPdf := func(x float64) float64 { const Mu = 5 lg, _ := math.Lgamma(x + 1) result := math.Exp((math.Log(Mu) * x) - lg - Mu) return result } out := make([]float64, 0, MaxBlocks) for i := 0; i < MaxBlocks; i++ { out = append(out, poissPdf(float64(i))) } return out } func binomialCoefficient(n, k float64) float64 { if k > n { return math.NaN() } r := 1.0 for d := 1.0; d <= k; d++ { r *= n r /= d n -= 1 } return r } func (mp *MessagePool) blockProbabilities(tq float64) []float64 { noWinners := noWinnersProb() // cache this p := 1 - tq binoPdf := func(x, trials float64) float64 { // based on https://github.com/atgjack/prob if x > trials { return 0 } if p == 0 { if x == 0 { return 1.0 } return 0.0 } if p == 1 { if x == trials { return 1.0 } return 0.0 } coef := binomialCoefficient(trials, x) pow := math.Pow(p, x) * math.Pow(1-p, trials-x) if math.IsInf(coef, 0) { return 0 } return coef * pow } out := make([]float64, 0, MaxBlocks) for place := 0; place < MaxBlocks; place++ { var pPlace float64 for otherWinners, pCase := range noWinners { pPlace += pCase * binoPdf(float64(place), float64(otherWinners+1)) } out = append(out, pPlace) } return out }