Adjust various CLI display ratios to arbitrary precision

Originally the deviations from using float64 were insignificant, but at
exabyte scale they start to show up. Cleanup all displays, and clarify
the expectation text, adding an extra 99.9% probability calculator to
`lotus-miner info`

chain/types/bigint.go

@@ -47,6 +47,11 @@ func BigDiv(a, b BigInt) BigInt {
 	return BigInt{Int: big.NewInt(0).Div(a.Int, b.Int)}
 }
 
+func BigDivFloat(num, den BigInt) float64 {
+	res, _ := new(big.Rat).SetFrac(num.Int, den.Int).Float64()
+	return res
+}
+
 func BigMod(a, b BigInt) BigInt {
 	return BigInt{Int: big.NewInt(0).Mod(a.Int, b.Int)}
 }

cli/state.go

@@ -183,18 +183,23 @@ var StateMinerInfo = &cli.Command{
 			return err
 		}
 
-		rpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower)
-		qpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower)
-
 		fmt.Printf("Byte Power:   %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 			color.BlueString(types.SizeStr(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower)),
 			types.SizeStr(pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower),
-			float64(rpercI.Int64())/10000)
+			types.BigDivFloat(
+				types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, big.NewInt(100)),
+				pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower,
+			),
+		)
 
 		fmt.Printf("Actual Power: %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 			color.GreenString(types.DeciStr(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower)),
 			types.DeciStr(pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower),
-			float64(qpercI.Int64())/10000)
+			types.BigDivFloat(
+				types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, big.NewInt(100)),
+				pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower,
+			),
+		)
 
 		fmt.Println()
 
@@ -302,8 +307,15 @@ var StatePowerCmd = &cli.Command{
 		tp := power.TotalPower
 		if cctx.Args().Present() {
 			mp := power.MinerPower
-			percI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(mp.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(1000000)), tp.QualityAdjPower)
+			fmt.Printf(
-			fmt.Printf("%s(%s) / %s(%s) ~= %0.4f%%\n", mp.QualityAdjPower.String(), types.SizeStr(mp.QualityAdjPower), tp.QualityAdjPower.String(), types.SizeStr(tp.QualityAdjPower), float64(percI.Int64())/10000)
+				"%s(%s) / %s(%s) ~= %0.4f%%\n",
+				mp.QualityAdjPower.String(), types.SizeStr(mp.QualityAdjPower),
+				tp.QualityAdjPower.String(), types.SizeStr(tp.QualityAdjPower),
+				types.BigDivFloat(
+					types.BigMul(mp.QualityAdjPower, big.NewInt(100)),
+					tp.QualityAdjPower,
+				),
+			)
 		} else {
 			fmt.Printf("%s(%s)\n", tp.QualityAdjPower.String(), types.SizeStr(tp.QualityAdjPower))
 		}

cmd/lotus-shed/sync.go

@@ -172,12 +172,13 @@ var syncScrapePowerCmd = &cli.Command{
 			return err
 		}
 
-		qpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(totalWonPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(1000000)), totalPower.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower)
-
 		fmt.Println("Number of winning miners: ", len(miners))
 		fmt.Println("QAdjPower of winning miners: ", totalWonPower.QualityAdjPower)
 		fmt.Println("QAdjPower of all miners: ", totalPower.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower)
-		fmt.Println("Percentage of winning QAdjPower: ", float64(qpercI.Int64())/10000)
+		fmt.Println("Percentage of winning QAdjPower: ", types.BigDivFloat(
+			types.BigMul(totalWonPower.QualityAdjPower, big.NewInt(100)),
+			totalPower.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower,
+		))
 
 		return nil
 	},

cmd/lotus-storage-miner/info.go

@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@ package main
 import (
 	"context"
 	"fmt"
+	"math"
+	corebig "math/big"
 	"sort"
 	"time"
 
@@ -21,6 +23,7 @@ import (
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/blockstore"
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/build"
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/actors/adt"
+	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/actors/builtin"
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/actors/builtin/miner"
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/types"
 	lcli "github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/cli"
@@ -120,19 +123,23 @@ func infoCmdAct(cctx *cli.Context) error {
 		return err
 	}
 
-	rpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower)
-	qpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower)
-
 	fmt.Printf("Power: %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 		color.GreenString(types.DeciStr(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower)),
 		types.DeciStr(pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower),
-		float64(qpercI.Int64())/10000)
+		types.BigDivFloat(
+			types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, big.NewInt(100)),
+			pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower,
+		),
+	)
 
 	fmt.Printf("\tRaw: %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 		color.BlueString(types.SizeStr(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower)),
 		types.SizeStr(pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower),
-		float64(rpercI.Int64())/10000)
+		types.BigDivFloat(
-
+			types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, big.NewInt(100)),
+			pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower,
+		),
+	)
 	secCounts, err := api.StateMinerSectorCount(ctx, maddr, types.EmptyTSK)
 	if err != nil {
 		return err
@@ -146,7 +153,7 @@ func infoCmdAct(cctx *cli.Context) error {
 	} else {
 		var faultyPercentage float64
 		if secCounts.Live != 0 {
-			faultyPercentage = float64(10000*nfaults/secCounts.Live) / 100.
+			faultyPercentage = float64(100*nfaults) / float64(secCounts.Live)
 		}
 		fmt.Printf("\tProving: %s (%s Faulty, %.2f%%)\n",
 			types.SizeStr(types.BigMul(types.NewInt(proving), types.NewInt(uint64(mi.SectorSize)))),
@@ -157,16 +164,47 @@ func infoCmdAct(cctx *cli.Context) error {
 	if !pow.HasMinPower {
 		fmt.Print("Below minimum power threshold, no blocks will be won")
 	} else {
-		expWinChance := float64(types.BigMul(qpercI, types.NewInt(build.BlocksPerEpoch)).Int64()) / 1000000
-		if expWinChance > 0 {
-			if expWinChance > 1 {
-				expWinChance = 1
-			}
-			winRate := time.Duration(float64(time.Second*time.Duration(build.BlockDelaySecs)) / expWinChance)
-			winPerDay := float64(time.Hour*24) / float64(winRate)
 
-			fmt.Print("Expected block win rate: ")
+		winRatio := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
-			color.Blue("%.4f/day (every %s)", winPerDay, winRate.Truncate(time.Second))
+			new(corebig.Rat).SetFrac(
+				types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(build.BlocksPerEpoch)).Int,
+				pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower.Int,
+			),
+			// decrease the rate ever-so-slightly to very roughly account for the multi-win poisson distribution
+			// FIXME - this is not a scientifically derived number... like at all
+			corebig.NewRat(99997, 100000),
+		)
+
+		if winRatioFloat, _ := winRatio.Float64(); winRatioFloat > 0 {
+
+			weekly, _ := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
+				winRatio,
+				new(corebig.Rat).SetInt64(7*builtin.EpochsInDay),
+			).Float64()
+
+			avgDuration, _ := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
+				new(corebig.Rat).SetInt64(builtin.EpochDurationSeconds),
+				new(corebig.Rat).Inv(winRatio),
+			).Float64()
+
+			fmt.Print("Projected average block win rate: ")
+			color.Blue(
+				"%.02f/week (every %s)",
+				weekly,
+				(time.Second * time.Duration(avgDuration)).Truncate(time.Second).String(),
+			)
+
+			// Geometric distribution calculated as described in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution#Probability_Outcomes_Examples
+			// https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=c%3D99%3B+p%3D188809111007232%3B+n%3D5740343177447735296%3B+%281-%284.99*p%2Fn%29%29%5E%28t*2880%29%3D%281-%28c%2F100%29%29
+			fmt.Print("Projected block win with ")
+			color.Green(
+				"99.9%% probability every %s",
+				(time.Second * time.Duration(
+					builtin.EpochDurationSeconds*math.Log(1-0.999)/
+						math.Log(1-winRatioFloat),
+				)).Truncate(time.Second).String(),
+			)
+			fmt.Println("(projections DO NOT account for future network and miner growth)")
 		}
 	}
 

cmd/lotus-storage-miner/proving.go

@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ var provingInfoCmd = &cli.Command{
 
 		var faultPerc float64
 		if proving > 0 {
-			faultPerc = float64(faults*10000/proving) / 100
+			faultPerc = float64(faults * 100 / proving)
 		}
 
 		fmt.Printf("Current Epoch:           %d\n", cd.CurrentEpoch)

testplans/lotus-soup/rfwp/chain_state.go

@@ -7,6 +7,8 @@ import (
 	"encoding/json"
 	"fmt"
 	"io"
+	"math"
+	corebig "math/big"
 	"os"
 	"sort"
 	"text/tabwriter"
@@ -27,6 +29,7 @@ import (
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/go-state-types/abi"
 	sealing "github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/extern/storage-sealing"
 
+	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/actors/builtin"
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/actors/builtin/miner"
 	tstats "github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/tools/stats"
 )
@@ -581,18 +584,24 @@ func (i *MinerInfo) MarshalPlainText() ([]byte, error) {
 	fmt.Fprintf(w, "Sector Size: %s\n", i.SectorSize)
 
 	pow := i.MinerPower
-	rpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower)
-	qpercI := types.BigDiv(types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(1000000)), pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower)
 
 	fmt.Fprintf(w, "Byte Power:   %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 		types.SizeStr(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower),
 		types.SizeStr(pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower),
-		float64(rpercI.Int64())/10000)
+		types.BigDivFloat(
+			types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.RawBytePower, big.NewInt(100)),
+			pow.TotalPower.RawBytePower,
+		),
+	)
 
 	fmt.Fprintf(w, "Actual Power: %s / %s (%0.4f%%)\n",
 		types.DeciStr(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower),
 		types.DeciStr(pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower),
-		float64(qpercI.Int64())/10000)
+		types.BigDivFloat(
+			types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, big.NewInt(100)),
+			pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower,
+		),
+	)
 
 	fmt.Fprintf(w, "\tCommitted: %s\n", types.SizeStr(i.CommittedBytes))
 
@@ -608,16 +617,43 @@ func (i *MinerInfo) MarshalPlainText() ([]byte, error) {
 	if !i.MinerPower.HasMinPower {
 		fmt.Fprintf(w, "Below minimum power threshold, no blocks will be won\n")
 	} else {
-		expWinChance := float64(types.BigMul(qpercI, types.NewInt(build.BlocksPerEpoch)).Int64()) / 1000000
-		if expWinChance > 0 {
-			if expWinChance > 1 {
-				expWinChance = 1
-			}
-			winRate := time.Duration(float64(time.Second*time.Duration(build.BlockDelaySecs)) / expWinChance)
-			winPerDay := float64(time.Hour*24) / float64(winRate)
 
-			fmt.Fprintln(w, "Expected block win rate: ")
+		winRatio := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
-			fmt.Fprintf(w, "%.4f/day (every %s)\n", winPerDay, winRate.Truncate(time.Second))
+			new(corebig.Rat).SetFrac(
+				types.BigMul(pow.MinerPower.QualityAdjPower, types.NewInt(build.BlocksPerEpoch)).Int,
+				pow.TotalPower.QualityAdjPower.Int,
+			),
+			// decrease the rate ever-so-slightly to very roughly account for the multi-win poisson distribution
+			// FIXME - this is not a scientifically derived number... like at all
+			corebig.NewRat(99997, 100000),
+		)
+
+		if winRatioFloat, _ := winRatio.Float64(); winRatioFloat > 0 {
+
+			weekly, _ := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
+				winRatio,
+				new(corebig.Rat).SetInt64(7*builtin.EpochsInDay),
+			).Float64()
+
+			avgDuration, _ := new(corebig.Rat).Mul(
+				new(corebig.Rat).SetInt64(builtin.EpochDurationSeconds),
+				new(corebig.Rat).Inv(winRatio),
+			).Float64()
+
+			fmt.Fprintf(w, "Projected average block win rate: %.02f/week (every %s)\n",
+				weekly,
+				(time.Second * time.Duration(avgDuration)).Truncate(time.Second).String(),
+			)
+
+			// Geometric distribution calculated as described in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution#Probability_Outcomes_Examples
+			// https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=c%3D99%3B+p%3D188809111007232%3B+n%3D5740343177447735296%3B+%281-%284.99*p%2Fn%29%29%5E%28t*2880%29%3D%281-%28c%2F100%29%29
+			fmt.Fprintf(w, "Projected block win with 99.9%% probability every %s\n",
+				(time.Second * time.Duration(
+					builtin.EpochDurationSeconds*math.Log(1-0.999)/
+						math.Log(1-winRatioFloat),
+				)).Truncate(time.Second).String(),
+			)
+			fmt.Fprintln(w, "(projections DO NOT account for future network and miner growth)")
 		}
 	}